Salford City's unexpected league position at the summit of League Two is being questioned by underlying statistics. The Ammies have collected more points than any other club in the entire EFL after 14 matches, yet data suggests their table-topping status may be a false one. They sit first in League Two on 31 points after 14 games, a record of 10 wins, one draw and three defeats.

According to Opta’s expected points model, Salford should be sitting in seventh place, not first. Their actual haul of 31 points from 10 wins, one draw and three defeats defies the projections. This stark contrast highlights the unpredictable nature of the current campaign.

The promotion race

The competition for the top spots remains extremely congested. Only three points separate Grimsby Town from Fleetwood Town further down the table, illustrating how quickly fortunes can change. Eleven teams have managed just a single away victory so far, adding to the sense of parity across the league. Salford's own recent form, however, has been imperious. They are on a five-match winning run, their latest a 2-1 comeback victory over Exeter City last Saturday where Luke Garbutt and Will Aimson scored late goals. This win over Exeter City on Saturday 31 October was preceded by a 4-2 victory at Walsall on Monday 26 October, a 2-1 win at Bristol Rovers on Tuesday 20 October, a 2-1 home win over Crawley Town on Saturday 17 October, and a 2-0 win at Cheltenham on Saturday 10 October.

Their summer investment, described as significant, appears to have paid immediate dividends on the pitch. The team has scored 25 goals while conceding 15, giving them a healthy goal difference of +10. They currently hold a five-point cushion over second-placed Barnet. This indicates they have been efficient in front of goal and have benefited from opponents' poor finishing. The club's top scorer this season is R. Graydon with 11 goals.

Other teams are experiencing contrasting fortunes. Walsall and Crewe Alexandra have won the same number of games as Bristol Rovers in 17th place, while Cheltenham Town possess a negative goal difference despite a relatively comfortable league position. Crawley Town, meanwhile, have a sizeable deficit to recover from near the bottom.

Salford City's next test comes at home to Northampton Town on Saturday 14 November. Northampton currently occupy 20th position, presenting another opportunity for Karl Robinson's side to consolidate their lead. The fixture list shows a favourable run of fixtures ahead as they look to prove the data wrong and maintain their grip on top spot.

First reported at swindonadvertiser.co.uk